COVID-19: Worst Case Scenario May See 314,000 Deaths in Nigeria – Rewane

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SWITZERLAND, MAY 07 – A member of Nigeria’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC) and MD/CEO of Financial Derivatives Co., Bismack Rewane, has postulated that the worst case scenario of the Covid-19 pandemic using a “simple regression” could have Nigeria witnessing a toll of 314,624 deaths if safety directives are not adhered to in a disciplined manner.

As a background to his presentation at a webinar organised by the CWC group dubbed “Strategies to Navigate Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Business through the Global Pandemic” monitored by Today’s Echo yesterday, Rewane stated that a moderate outbreak will see about 99, 300 likely infections with 6,647 likely fatalities, while a severe outbreak will lead to 4.7 million likely infections with 314, 624 fatalities overtaking malaria which kills about 300,000 Nigerians annually. His estimates are based on current trends in the country. Regression is a statistical method used to model future data by analysing the relationship with existing variables.

The renowned economist, who moderated the panel, also disclosed that the incremental impact on some sectors will be harsh. According to him, some of the most “lockdown sensitive” sectors are aviation, hospitality, trading, catering, brewing, and real estate. While transportation, entertainment, crude petroleum, health insurance, and PFA will be moderately affected.

However, the sectors that stand to benefit from the lifestyle changes occasioned by the pandemic include telecoms, information technology, e-commerce, electronic payments, mining and quarrying, distribution and storage, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and oil & gas upstream.

Other notable speakers at the webinar include Seyi Bella, Partner, Banwo and Ighodalo, Ainojie Alex Irune, Chief Operating Officer, Oando Energy Resources, Oluwatoyin Aina, Group Head – Energy, Downstream & International Oil Trading, First Bank of Nigeria, and Ade Adeola, Managing Director – Energy & Natural Resources, Standard Chartered Bank PLC.

This is coming at a time Nigerians are worried about recent mysterious deaths in the country, especially in Kano and Jigawa states in the North. It has been difficult to ascertain the total number killed by coronavirus in the country, because of low testing capacity.

Presently, there are more than 3.7 million COVID-19 cases around the world. More than 1.2 million of them have recovered, representing 33.2 percent recovery rate. With nearly 258,000 deaths, global death rate currently stands at 6.9 percent. There are currently more than 2.2 million active cases around the world.

Since the first case of the coronavirus was announced on 27 February 2020, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has reported a total of 3,145 cases of Covid-19 in the country. The total number of COVID-19 fatalities currently stands at 103.

These figures will likely increase as many Nigerians have been observed flouting the physical (social) distancing guidelines as the federal government began gradual relaxation of the lockdown in Abuja, Lagos, and Ogun states this week.The weak capacity of Nigerian’s health care systems is likely to exacerbate the pandemic and its impact on the economy.

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